The economic consequences of this are devastating. Government measures to combat the spread of SARS-CoV-2 have resulted in various restrictions and lockdowns ( Ritchie et al., 2020). At the day of writing (November 11, 2020), at least 51 million people worldwide have been infected with COVID-19, and more than 1.2 million have died. This is a worrisome trend given the tremendous impacts of armed conflict on human security and on the capabilities of countries to deal with health emergencies.ĬOVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict.
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